Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco boosted its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to the highest levels in its history on Wednesday, citing persistent production shortfalls and strong long-term demand for the metal.
Cochilco now expects copper to average $4.45 per pound in 2025 and $4.55 per pound in 2026, up from its previous estimate of $4.30 for both years. According to the commission’s mining market coordinator Víctor Garay, prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory through the end of the decade as global supply continues to lag demand.
The upward revision comes amid a year of uneven output from Chile, the world’s largest copper producer. Cochilco reported weaker production from several major operations, including the Collahuasi mine (operated by Anglo American and Glencore), reduced output from Anglo American Sur, and disruptions caused by an accident at Codelco’s El Teniente mine. These setbacks have put further strain on a global copper market already grappling with supply deficits.
The commission now expects Chilean copper production to total 5.51 million metric tons this year, essentially flat with 2024 levels, before rising 2.5% to 5.6 million tons in 2026. Garay added that production should recover more meaningfully by 2027, potentially reaching 5.9 million tons as other operations offset weakness at El Teniente.
Cochilco also noted that global copper demand will continue to grow, though at a slower pace, driven largely by the ongoing expansion of electric vehicles, renewable energy projects, and power-grid infrastructure. Analysts across the industry share a similarly bullish outlook. JP Morgan recently said it expects copper prices to approach $11,000 per metric ton (about $5.00 per pound) by 2026, citing a looming multi-year supply deficit. Meanwhile, producers like BHP have been increasing output at flagship operations such as Escondida to capitalize on tightening global supply conditions.
Despite the strong forecast, Cochilco warned that several risks remain, including potential tariff changes, weaker global growth, and shifts in long-term demand trends that could temper price gains.
Overall, the commission’s record-high forecasts reflect a copper market tightening rapidly as supply struggles to keep pace with accelerating demand from the global energy transition.
