Canada Nickel Company Inc. (TSXV:CNC) received a major boost this week after the federal government formally advanced its flagship Crawford Nickel Project into the Major Projects Office (MPO) — a designation reserved for strategically important, national-scale developments. The move is expected to streamline federal permitting, support project coordination, and potentially accelerate access to future financing avenues.
The designation marks one of the most significant pieces of federal support for a Canadian nickel project in recent years, reinforcing Ottawa’s broader push to position Canada as a global supplier of critical minerals needed for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and clean-energy technologies.
A New Chapter for the Crawford Nickel Project
Located in the Timmins–Cochrane mining district of northern Ontario, Crawford is one of the world’s largest bulk-tonnage nickel sulphide discoveries. Canada Nickel has promoted the deposit as a future cornerstone of North America’s low-carbon nickel supply, supported by its proposed carbon-capture-enhanced mining process, which the company says could eventually make Crawford one of the world’s lowest-carbon nickel operations.
The MPO referral adds political weight to that vision. Federal Natural Resources officials say the designation is intended to “improve regulatory timelines, coordinate intergovernmental reviews and support strategic projects essential to Canada’s clean-technology supply chain.”
The move follows a series of federal and provincial initiatives aimed at jump-starting Canadian critical-mineral development. Earlier this year, Ottawa outlined new incentives and permitting reforms, while Ontario has invested in the province’s “EV battery corridor,” stretching from the Ring of Fire to southern Ontario manufacturing hubs.
Stock Surges on Renewed Optimism
The market reaction was swift. Canada Nickel shares have soared:
- 37.7% in the past week
- 87.2% over the past 90 days
The surge has erased a significant portion of the stock’s multi-year decline. However, the company’s five-year total shareholder return remains negative, a reminder that momentum in junior mining equities can be volatile and investor confidence can evaporate quickly without tangible project milestones.
The renewed investor interest mirrors a broader uptick in nickel-sector optimism. Global nickel markets have shown early signs of tightening after years of supply concerns driven primarily by Indonesia’s rapid output expansion. Analysts note that growing demand from EV manufacturers, battery developers and stainless-steel producers could improve long-term pricing fundamentals, though near-term volatility remains.
Valuation Questions: Still Undervalued or Already Priced In?
With the stock’s sharp rally and stronger government backing, analysts are now re-evaluating whether Canada Nickel remains undervalued — or whether the recent optimism has already been priced into the shares.
Canada Nickel currently trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4×, well below:
- 2.6× — the Canadian Metals & Mining sector average
- 2.8× — the company’s direct peer group
For a pre-revenue miner, the P/B ratio is one of the more meaningful valuation benchmarks, reflecting investor sentiment toward the company’s land package, engineering studies, and future production potential.
A lower multiple implies that, despite the government’s support, the market still sees risks associated with permitting, funding, infrastructure requirements, and the need to secure long-term offtake agreements with EV battery manufacturers.
Several analysts have argued that if Canada Nickel successfully advances the project toward a construction decision — and if nickel prices strengthen into 2026-2027 — the stock’s P/B ratio could normalize closer to sector averages.
Industry Analysts Weigh In
Some mining analysts say the MPO designation significantly improves the company’s strategic positioning. “Projects selected for the Major Projects Office typically receive more cohesive oversight and faster regulatory clarity, which can materially derisk timelines,” said one Toronto-based mining consultant.
Others caution that major financing hurdles remain. Preliminary capital estimates for Crawford suggest multi-billion-dollar funding requirements. In the current capital markets environment, large greenfield mining projects still face challenges securing debt and equity.
Still, the project’s scale and its low-carbon positioning have attracted international interest. Several global automakers and battery suppliers have been quietly expanding conversations with Canadian miners amid pressure to secure non-Chinese sources of critical minerals.
Risks Still Front and Centre
Despite recent optimism, Canada Nickel remains a development-stage company with:
- ongoing losses expected for at least three more years
- no commercial production
- significant execution and capital-raising risks
- exposure to nickel price fluctuations
This mix explains why, even after the rally, the equity remains priced below peers. The market is signaling cautious optimism—but not certainty.
Verdict: Still Undervalued (For Now)
Based solely on the price-to-book metric, Canada Nickel appears undervalued at 1.4×. But sustained investor confidence will depend on the company hitting major milestones, including:
- completion of the permitting process
- final feasibility studies
- construction financing
- long-term supply agreements with battery and EV manufacturers
For now, federal support has injected new momentum into one of Canada’s most closely watched critical-minerals projects — but the next phase will require turning political support and geological potential into economic reality.
