Global mineral and metal prices are expected to edge higher in 2026 as resilient demand, tightening supply conditions, and easing trade uncertainty provide a supportive backdrop, according to new forecasts from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
BMI expects price gains across most major metals to be modest rather than explosive, reflecting a market that is transitioning from post-pandemic volatility toward more structurally driven fundamentals. Strong consumption linked to energy transition technologies, infrastructure investment, and electrification is forecast to offset slowing growth in some traditional end-markets.
Demand Strength Anchored in Energy Transition
Demand for key industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, and lithium is projected to remain robust in 2026, supported by continued investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles, grid expansion, and data infrastructure. Copper, in particular, remains a standout due to its central role in electrification, while aluminum continues to benefit from lightweighting trends and power sector demand.
BMI notes that while China’s metals consumption growth is expected to moderate, this will be partially counterbalanced by expanding demand in Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, and North America, where infrastructure and industrial activity remain supportive.
Supply Constraints Limit Downside Risks
On the supply side, BMI highlights persistent constraints that are likely to keep markets relatively tight. Years of underinvestment in mining capacity, declining ore grades, and permitting challenges have limited the ability of producers to respond quickly to rising demand.
For several metals, including copper and nickel, project delays, operational disruptions, and policy-driven output restrictions continue to pose upside risks to prices. These constraints are expected to prevent significant price corrections, even if demand growth slows modestly.
Trade and Tariff Risks Ease
One of the more constructive elements of BMI’s 2026 outlook is a reduction in tariff-related uncertainty. While trade policy risks have not disappeared, BMI believes the likelihood of broad, disruptive tariff escalations has declined compared with recent years.
Lower trade friction could help stabilize global supply chains and reduce price volatility, particularly for metals heavily exposed to cross-border flows. This shift may also encourage more long-term contracting and investment across the mining and processing sectors.
Precious Metals and Bulk Commodities
Precious metals are expected to show mixed performance. Gold prices are likely to remain supported by central bank buying and geopolitical risk, though upside may be capped if interest rates remain elevated. Silver may benefit from its dual industrial and investment roles, especially in solar applications.
Bulk commodities such as iron ore are forecast to face more subdued price dynamics, reflecting ongoing weakness in China’s property sector and ample supply. However, BMI does not anticipate a sharp downturn, citing steady steel demand from infrastructure and manufacturing outside China.
Measured Gains, Not a Supercycle
BMI emphasizes that its outlook does not signal the start of a new commodity supercycle. Instead, 2026 is expected to deliver incremental price gains driven by structural demand trends and constrained supply, rather than speculative excess.
Overall, the firm sees mineral and metal markets entering a phase of tighter balances and more disciplined pricing, with volatility remaining but extreme swings becoming less frequent.
