Trade tensions between China and Japan escalated sharply on Thursday after Beijing declared that bilateral economic cooperation has been “severely damaged.” The statement came in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks suggesting that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan could trigger a collective self-defense response from Japan under its security laws.
The dispute began on November 7, when Takaichi told Japanese lawmakers that any Chinese blockade or assault on Taiwan could endanger Japan’s “survival” due to the island’s proximity and its importance to regional stability. Although Tokyo says the comments do not represent a shift in Japan’s long-standing Taiwan policy, Beijing has reacted fiercely. China’s Commerce Ministry urged Takaichi to withdraw the remarks immediately and warned that failure to do so would force China to take “necessary measures,” with all consequences falling on Japan.
China’s retaliation has already begun. Chinese authorities have reimposed restrictions on Japanese seafood imports, echoing similar measures imposed in 2023 after the Fukushima water release. A new travel advisory from Beijing is discouraging Chinese tourists from visiting Japan, contributing to a sudden drop in tourism and business travel. Chinese cultural and entertainment sectors have also scaled back Japanese-related events, adding symbolic pressure alongside the economic measures. Diplomatic channels have grown frosty as well, with reports that Chinese Premier Li Qiang will not meet Takaichi at the upcoming G20 summit, a rare and pointed snub between the two major Asian economies.
The economic stakes are substantial. China remains Japan’s second-largest export market after the United States, purchasing more than $120 billion worth of goods annually. Many of these exports — including industrial machinery, electronic components, and autos — rely on predictable market access. Analysts warn that if China widens its economic pressure campaign, Japanese manufacturers could face significant disruptions. Historical precedent is fueling these concerns: in 2010, Beijing abruptly halted rare-earth exports to Japan during a maritime dispute, and in 2023 it launched a sweeping seafood ban that lasted months.
Public sentiment in China appears to support a tougher stance. Chinese state media and officials have emphasized that Takaichi’s remarks have “seriously undermined political trust,” and government spokesperson He Yongqian described widespread public anger over the perceived shift in Japan’s position on Taiwan. In Tokyo, however, officials have downplayed the controversy, insisting that Japan’s basic approach to Taiwan remains unchanged and that Takaichi was merely restating principles already embedded in Japanese security policy.
The United States has weighed in cautiously, reiterating its support for Japan and calling for regional stability while criticizing the use of coercive economic tools. Security analysts note that Takaichi’s comments mark a notable departure from Japan’s traditional strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, potentially signaling a more assertive posture at a time of rising regional tensions.
With trade, tourism, and diplomatic engagement now fraying simultaneously, many observers warn that China and Japan may be entering a prolonged period of strained relations. Unless one side finds a face-saving way to de-escalate, what started as a single parliamentary remark could evolve into the most serious downturn in bilateral ties in more than a decade.
