A shift in the U.S. housing market may finally be opening the door for first-time homebuyers as improving affordability and rising inventory create new opportunities across several key regions.
Jacksonville, Florida, leads the list as the top market for first-time buyers this year, followed by Birmingham, Alabama; San Antonio, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; and Houston, Texas.
Each of these cities is benefiting from a more favorable balance of home prices, available inventory and buyer competition, according to a new Zillow analysis.
Zillow’s rankings are based on several key factors, including rent burden, the share of affordable listings, inventory relative to renters and the concentration of buyers in their prime homebuying years.
The top 10 markets for first-time buyers in 2026 are:
Jacksonville ranks first, with rent consuming 23.1% of income. Nearly 47.8% of listings are considered affordable, supported by relatively strong inventory at 5.9 homes per 100 renters.
Birmingham stands out for affordability, with more than 55.6% of homes within reach and 6.2 listings available per 100 renters.
With a lower rent burden of 20.2% and 47.4% of listings deemed affordable, San Antonio offers a balanced entry point for buyers.
About 45.2% of listings are affordable in Atlanta, where moderate competition is paired with steady inventory levels.
Houston’s affordability rate sits around 40.2%, supported by a large population of buyers in their prime homebuying years.
Affordability is a key strength in St. Louis, where 67.7% of listings fall within reach for first-time buyers.
Nearly 64.8% of homes in Detroit are affordable, combined with relatively manageable competition.
Raleigh benefits from a low rent burden of 18.4%, with about 48% of listings remaining affordable.
Approximately 61.8% of homes are affordable in Baltimore, though inventory is tighter at three listings per 100 renters.
Louisville rounds out the top ten, with 54.1% of listings considered affordable and a steady supply of homes.
Mortgage rates are still elevated, and housing inventory sits about 20% below pre-pandemic levels. Still, conditions have improved from a year ago, with more homes available and modest gains in affordability, according to Zillow.
“First-time buyers are finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel,” Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow, said in a statement.
“Affordability is still a challenge, but rising incomes, stabilizing prices and improving inventory are creating real opportunities in parts of the country.”
