Market snapshot and price path in early 2026
Copper markets remained volatile in the first quarter as policy signals and supply disruptions influenced sentiment. Tariffs on semi-finished copper products were announced, with refined copper exempted from duties. Traders moved metal ahead of the measures, contributing to sharp moves in key benchmarks.
From the start of 2025 through mid-2025, copper futures surged, with the COMEX next-active contract climbing to about $5.82 per pound by July 2025. In the period following the tariff announcements, prices retreated to around $4.35 per pound by August 1, 2025, before turning higher again. By March 1, 2026, copper reached a fresh high above $6.06 per pound. Recycled copper tracked the broader market closely, moving in step with copper price indexes.
Arbitrage between major exchanges remained tight in 2026. The LME and COMEX spreads hovered near a few cents per pound, with the LME at roughly $5.82 per pound and COMEX around $5.80 per pound in March, a narrow gap of about two cents.
Key supply disruptions shaping the year
- Grasberg mine in Indonesia—A flood in September 2025 disrupted operations and is expected to trim 2026 output by about 270,000 metric tonnes.
- Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo—Mid-2025 flooding interrupted production; dewatering allowed a restart but 2026 guidance was cut to 380,000–420,000 t from 520,000–580,000 t in 2025.
- El Teniente in Chile—Offline from July to September 2025, with annual production reduced by about 25,000 metric tonnes.
Demand drivers expand beyond traditional cycles
In addition to ongoing decarbonization, data center capacity linked to the AI era has become a major demand driver. The International Energy Agency notes that U.S. data center construction doubled over the past two years as large technology firms invest heavily in capacity to support AI workloads. Copper is essential for power networks, circuit boards, and cooling systems in these facilities. For example, a Microsoft data center project in Chicago consumed more than 2,177 metric tonnes of copper, underscoring the material’s role in digital infrastructure. The energy networks feeding these centers also contribute to copper demand.
Speculation and price swings shape the 2026 landscape
Even with robust underlying demand, copper prices experienced bouts of volatility driven in part by financial speculation. Investors accumulated long positions in copper futures, contributing to notable price spikes at times. In January 2026, COMEX cash prices neared $6.50 per pound, while the LME’s benchmarks traded higher on a per-tonne basis. After the speculative phase cooled, the market saw a pullback, with COMEX prices near $5.75 per pound in early March. The spread between major exchanges remained narrow, measuring about two cents in March 2026.
Recycled copper market: spreads and steady export demand
Recycled copper has moved more consistently in 2026 compared with 2025. The domestic market’s spread for #2 copper versus the COMEX benchmark widened in mid-2025 to around $1.55 per pound, reflecting market uncertainty. By 2026, the arbitrage between LME and COMEX stood at roughly two cents per pound, with LME at 5.82 and COMEX at 5.80 per pound. Domestic buyers struggled to sustain strong quoted demand, while exporters found a steadier outlet for material through international markets.
Outlook and industry indicators
- Global refined copper consumption rose modestly in 2025, while mine production posted a small gain. ICSG data show a refined copper surplus of about 380,000 t in 2025, up from 69,000 t in 2024.
- Global refined consumption increased to around 28.16 million t in 2025, with forecasts pointing toward about 29 million t by 2027. Mine production rose roughly 1% to 23.13 million t, while Chile’s output slipped by about 1.6% in 2025.
- Global refining capacity is projected to grow by around 3.9% from 2026 to 2028, supporting longer-term supply resilience.
- The policy outlook remains a variable feature, with decisions on tariffs for other copper products slated for June 2026 and potential implications for near-term pricing and flows.
