Copper prices are widely expected to remain historically high through 2026, with leading banks and analysts projecting averages well above $10,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Forecasts generally cluster between $10,500 and above $12,000 per metric ton, supported by persistent supply shortages and structural demand tied to artificial intelligence, electrification, and defense spending. However, analysts caution that trade policy uncertainty and moderating global growth could inject volatility after early-year peaks.
2026 Price Forecasts
- J.P. Morgan expects copper to average roughly $12,075 per metric ton in 2026, with prices potentially peaking near $12,500 in the second quarter. The bank cites a projected refined copper deficit of approximately 330,000 metric tons (kmt) as a primary driver.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts a range of $10,000 to $11,000 per metric ton, with first-half 2026 prices averaging around $10,710. While the bank sees continued tightness early in the year, it anticipates some easing later in 2026 as marginal surpluses emerge and trade policy developments weigh on sentiment.
- Analysts surveyed by the World Bank place 2026 averages closer to $10,000–$10,500 per metric ton, reflecting a consensus view of sustained tightness but limited upside beyond current highs.
- Trading Economics projects near-term prices around $5.90 per pound (approximately $13,000 per metric ton), with 12-month forecasts approaching $6.60 per pound, implying further upside if supply constraints persist.
What’s Driving the Outlook?
1. Structural Supply Deficits
Mine supply growth remains constrained by declining ore grades, project delays, and permitting challenges. Refined market deficits are expected to approach 330 kmt in 2026, reinforcing the view that inventories will stay tight.
2. Energy Transition and AI Demand
Copper demand continues to benefit from grid expansion, renewable energy projects, electric vehicles, and data center infrastructure supporting AI development. Investment in power networks and defense systems further underpins long-term consumption growth.
3. Tariff and Trade Policy Uncertainty
Goldman Sachs has flagged the possibility of a 15% U.S. tariff on copper imports, potentially implemented in 2027. Even if enacted later, such measures could distort trade flows and create price swings during 2026 as markets adjust.
4. Longer-Term Bull Case
Looking beyond 2026, Goldman Sachs maintains that structural underinvestment in mining could push copper toward $15,000 per metric ton by 2035 if demand growth continues to outpace supply.
Key Risks to the Outlook
- Price-Induced Supply Response: Sustained high prices may incentivize additional recycling and marginal production increases, softening deficits.
- Global Growth Slowdown: A sharper-than-expected economic downturn could weaken industrial demand and trigger price corrections.
- Policy Surprises: Unexpected shifts in monetary or trade policy could amplify volatility.
Overall, while 2026 may not replicate extreme price spikes seen during past commodity supercycles, most forecasters agree that copper is likely to remain on a high plateau, with tight fundamentals outweighing downside risks — at least in the near term.
